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Interest & exchange rate forecast

There were no surprises from central banks in Europe or the US over the past month. The Federal Reserve trimmed its asset purchase programme again, to $65bn.

This "tapering" has contributed to the considerable development we're seeing in many emerging markets, which has been the most important macro development over the past month.

In Europe, it was all about what central banks didn't do. The Bank of England didn't say anything about a revised forward guidance framework after its February meeting, though this will surely come next week when the Inflation Report is published. And the European Central Bank didn't cut rates despite worryingly low inflation on the continent, with President Draghi confident that stronger demand will ultimately save the day. Let's hope he's right.

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