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Key Findings

  • Business activity rises in five regions in November
  • London remains the stand-out performer for growth
  • Business costs rise across the regions

 

November continued to show a mixed picture for businesses across the UK, according to the latest NatWest Regional Growth Tracker.

Following trends witnessed in October, almost half of the nations and regions monitored by the survey in November recorded an increase in business activity. Growth expectations for the coming year from those surveyed were mixed.    

The Tracker's headline figure is the Business Activity Index. Any reading above 50.0 signals growth, and the further above the 50.0 threshold the faster the rate of growth signalled.  

The number of regions recording growth in business activity ticked down from six out of 12 in October to five in November. London (55.7) recorded the strongest rate of expansion for the fifth month running, albeit with growth easing slightly in the capital. The South West (52.5), West Midlands (51.4), East of England (51.4) and South East (51.3) also recorded increases in output in the year’s penultimate month. 

Businesses' costs rose in all areas of the UK in November, with Northern Ireland recording the strongest rate of input price inflation, ahead of Scotland and London.

Employment fell across all areas of the country – the first time this has occurred since March this year. However, the West Midlands and Northern Ireland enjoyed renewed improvements in new business in November.

 

Commenting on the Tracker’s findings, Sebastian Burnside, NatWest Chief Economist, said:

“The distribution of growth at a regional level in November looked very similar to the month before, with only the North East unable to sustain the growth it experienced in October.

“The scores for employment fell sharply this month, but this may yet prove temporary as the heightened levels of uncertainty in the lead up to the Budget likely led to a wait-and-see approach to hiring amongst some businesses.

“Positively, there are indicators that businesses in the West Midlands appear to be on the road to recovery following the impact of this year’s cyber attack, with its growth score beating the UK average in November. Like the West Midlands, Northern Ireland also enjoyed an upshift in new business too.

“However, inflation has been a thorn in businesses' side and November’s Regional Growth Tracker has shown that it is still a consideration for most as costs continue to rise for businesses across all regions.”

 

Demand

London recorded the most marked increase in demand for goods and services in November, as has been the case in each of the last four months, followed by the South West. Inflows of new business also rose in the West Midlands, South East and Northern Ireland, although in each case the increases were only marginal. Firms in the North West recorded the most challenging demand conditions.                      

Employment

Employment fell across the board in November, the first time this has been the case for eight months. The quickest rate of decline in workforce numbers was seen in the West Midlands, followed by the South West. Labour markets in Scotland and Northern Ireland showed the most resilience, with both recording only slight decreases in staffing levels.

Capacity

Despite workforce numbers falling across the UK, there remained a general lack of pressure on operating capacity. All 12 nations and regions monitored by the survey recorded a reduction in backlogs of work in November. Yorkshire & Humber registered the most marked decline, followed by Wales.              

Inflation

Not only did businesses' costs rise in all areas of the UK in November, but the rates of increase quickened from the month before in most cases. Northern Ireland recorded the strongest rate of input price inflation, ahead of Scotland and London. The East Midlands and North East saw the softest rises in costs and were the only two regions where the rates of increase were weaker than their respective long-run averages.                           

November's survey results pointed to generally weaker pricing power among businesses across the UK. The North East, Wales and East of England each recorded decreases in average prices charged for goods and services, marking the first incidences of overall discounting since early 2021. Output prices were unchanged in Yorkshire & Humber and rose at slower rates in the remaining areas. The pace of inflation in Northern Ireland remained strong, nevertheless.         

Outlook

It was a mixed picture for business expectations in November. Half of the 12 monitored nations and regions posted an increase in confidence towards activity in the year ahead, while the other six recorded a decline. Sentiment was strongest among firms in the South East, and lowest in Northern Ireland. 

NatWest Regional Growth Tracker

Download the latest NatWest Regional Growth Tracker 

Download

NatWest

Jonathan Rennie

Regional Media & Campaigns Manager

+44 7769 932 102

jonathan.rennie@natwest.com

Notes to editors

Methodology

The NatWest UK Regional Growth Tracker data are compiled by S&P Global from responses to questionnaires sent to companies that participate in S&P Global's UK PMI surveys. S&P Global compiles data for Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and nine English regions*.

Survey responses are collected in the second half of each month and indicate the direction of change compared to the previous month. A diffusion index is calculated for each survey variable. The index is the sum of the percentage of ‘higher’ responses and half the percentage of ‘unchanged’ responses. The indices vary between 0 and 100, with a reading above 50 indicating an overall increase compared to the previous month, and below 50 an overall decrease. The indices are then seasonally adjusted.

The headline figure for each region is the Business Activity Index. This is a diffusion index calculated from a single question that asks for changes in the volume of business activity (at service providers) or output (at manufacturers) compared with one month previously. The Business Activity Index is comparable to the UK Composite Output Index.

The survey data for November were collected 12-26 November 2025.

For further information on the survey methodology, please contact economics@spglobal.com.

*International Territorial Level 1 definitions.

About PMI

Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®) surveys are now available for over 40 countries and also for key regions including the eurozone. They are the most closely watched business surveys in the world, favoured by central banks, financial markets and business decision makers for their ability to provide up-to-date, accurate and often unique monthly indicators of economic trends. To learn more go to www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/products/pmi.

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