Back to main menu
Search
Search
Overlay

Key Findings

  • East of England, South West and London the main growth drivers at end of Q2
  • Northern Ireland outperforms on employment front
  • Rates of output price inflation ease across the UK

 

The latest NatWest Regional Growth Tracker showed improved performances across most parts of the UK in June, with business activity rising in eight out of the 12 nations and regions monitored.      

The Tracker – which surveyed businesses operating in the manufacturing and services sectors across 12 regions of the country – showed business activity growth broaden from six nations and regions in May to eight in June, which was the most since September last year.

The East of England recorded the fastest rate of expansion, the quickest it has seen for more than three years, followed by the South West and London. Business activity was unchanged in the North West and came close to stabilising in both the East Midlands and Yorkshire & Humber, while Northern Ireland saw a minor setback following growth in May.

 

Commenting on the Tracker’s findings, Sebastian Burnside, NatWest Chief Economist, said:

“It was a positive end to the second quarter, with most UK nations and regions back in growth territory. Even where business activity dipped in June, with the rates of decline being only modest and the performances better than seen on average over the first half of the year, those areas are still in what we dub 'recovery' territory.

"The same is true for underlying demand. New business either rose or was on a more stable footing compared to earlier in the year.

"The labour market is the main weak spot at the moment, as the combination of wages pressures and underutilised capacity encourages firms to look for productivity gains where possible.

"Encouragingly, cost inflation has come down from the highs seen in the spring, dropping even further in June across most parts of the UK. Businesses in all areas have been able to make smaller and smaller price increases of their own in last couple of months, relieving some of the pressure on demand.”

 

Follow our Chief Economist Seb Burnside on LinkedIn.

 

Demand

Alongside sustained growth in new business in Wales, there were renewed upturns in the East of England, North East, South West and London in June. The East of England recorded the fastest rate of expansion - its quickest for over two years. At the other end of the scale was Northern Ireland, which saw a modest drop in new orders.  

                                                                          

Employment

Nearly all parts of the UK saw a decrease in employment in June. The only exception was Northern Ireland, where workforce numbers rose for the first time in five months, albeit only marginally. The steepest decline in staffing level was recorded in Yorkshire & Humber.

 

Capacity

June saw the volume of outstanding business (i.e. the volume of orders or projects awaiting completion) decrease in almost all 12 nations and regions, indicating a general lack of pressure on business capacity. The sharpest declines were jointly recorded in the North West and Yorkshire & Humber. The only increase – albeit marginal – was in the neighbouring North East.                

 

Inflation

Firms across all nine English regions and in Wales recorded slower increases in input prices in June. The weakest overall cost inflation was seen in the North West. By contrast, both Northern Ireland and Scotland saw slightly faster increases in firms' operating expenses, with the former recorded the steepest overall rise.                      

Although average prices charged for goods and services continued rising across the UK in June, rates of inflation eased in all areas. The most marked slowdown was seen in the West Midlands, while the lowest overall rate of increase was in Yorkshire & Humber. As was the case for input costs, the steepest rise in output prices was seen in Northern Ireland.  

  

Outlook

Business expectations towards activity in the next 12 months remained positive across the board in June, with the strongest optimism seen in the West Midlands. That said, in most cases confidence decreased from the month before, most notably in the North East.

NatWest Regional Growth Tracker

Download the latest NatWest Regional Growth Tracker for June 2025.

Download
Royal Bank of Scotland Regional Growth Tracker

Download the latest Royal Bank of Scotland Regional Growth Tracker for June 2025.

Download

Contact

NatWest

Jonathan Rennie

Regional Media & Campaigns Manager

+44 7769 932 102

jonathan.rennie@natwest.com

 

Notes to editors

Methodology

The NatWest UK Regional Growth Tracker data are compiled by S&P Global from responses to questionnaires sent to companies that participate in S&P Global's UK PMI surveys. S&P Global compiles data for Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and nine English regions*.

Survey responses are collected in the second half of each month and indicate the direction of change compared to the previous month. A diffusion index is calculated for each survey variable. The index is the sum of the percentage of ‘higher’ responses and half the percentage of ‘unchanged’ responses. The indices vary between 0 and 100, with a reading above 50 indicating an overall increase compared to the previous month, and below 50 an overall decrease. The indices are then seasonally adjusted.

The headline figure for each region is the Business Activity Index. This is a diffusion index calculated from a single question that asks for changes in the volume of business activity (at service providers) or output (at manufacturers) compared with one month previously. The Business Activity Index is comparable to the UK Composite Output Index.

The survey data for June were collected 12-26 June 2025.

For further information on the survey methodology, please contact economics@spglobal.com.

*International Territorial Level 1 definitions.

 

About PMI

Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®) surveys are now available for over 40 countries and also for key regions including the eurozone. They are the most closely watched business surveys in the world, favoured by central banks, financial markets and business decision makers for their ability to provide up-to-date, accurate and often unique monthly indicators of economic trends. To learn more go to www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/products/pmi.

 

About S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI)

S&P Global provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses and individuals with the right data, expertise and connected technology so that they can make decisions with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments to guiding them through ESG and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges and accelerate progress for the world.

We are widely sought after by many of the world’s leading organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world’s leading organizations plan for tomorrow, today. www.spglobal.com.

 

Disclaimer

The intellectual property rights to the data provided herein are owned by or licensed to S&P Global and/or its affiliates. Any unauthorised use, including but not limited to copying, distributing, transmitting or otherwise of any data appearing is not permitted without S&P Global’s prior consent. S&P Global shall not have any liability, duty or obligation for or relating to the content or information (“Data”) contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in the Data, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall S&P Global be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages, arising out of the use of the Data. Purchasing Managers’ Index™ and PMI® are either trade marks or registered trade marks of S&P Global Inc or licensed to S&P Global Inc and/or its affiliates.

This Content was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global. Reproduction of any information, data or material, including ratings (“Content”) in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of the relevant party. Such party, its affiliates and suppliers (“Content Providers”) do not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, completeness, timeliness or availability of any Content and are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such Content. In no event shall Content Providers be liable for any damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including lost income or lost profit and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the Content.

The information contained in our press releases is intended solely for journalists and media and should not be used by consumers to make financial decisions. Terms and conditions apply to any products or services mentioned in our press releases.

Related press releases

All stories & press releases
scroll to top