The latest Ulster Bank Regional Growth Tracker signalled a renewed expansion in output for Northern Ireland companies as the second half of the year began, a marked turnaround from the sharp fall in activity seen in June.
Business confidence also improved, while employment broadly stabilised and the rate of decline in new orders softened. Weaker inflationary pressures were also signalled, but input costs and selling prices continued to increase sharply.
The headline Business Activity Index – a seasonally adjusted index that measures the month-on-month change in the combined output of the region’s private sector – moved back above the 50.0 no-change mark in July, posting 51.4 from 43.9 in June. The rise was the first in four months.
Where output increased, panellists reported signs of improving customer demand. That said, the expansion in activity in Northern Ireland was still slightly weaker than the UK average. Three of the four broad sectors saw output rise, led by manufacturing. Only retail posted a fall.
Sebastian Burnside, Chief Economist for Ulster Bank, commented:
“The Northern Ireland Growth Tracker painted a much more encouraging picture of conditions in the private sector as the second half of the year began. Business activity bounced back into growth territory following difficulties in May and June, helped by signs of stabilisation in customer demand.
“There was also good news on the jobs front, with some firms looking to expand staffing levels. That said, there were continued reports of the difficulties faced in finding the right workers, which ultimately limited the extent to which companies were able to hire.
“Inflationary pressures remained persistent but increased domestic political stability may support more confidence about the future for Northern Ireland businesses in the coming months. Should this optimism continue then we may see stronger business performance in the second half of the year than in the first.”
Mark Crimmins, Ulster Bank Managing Director Corporate, Commercial and Business Banking, added:
“Our Ulster Bank Growth Tracker data found renewed activity and confidence among Northern Ireland businesses in July. While inflation remains challenging, increases are continuing to slow, which alongside greater output levels has created a more favourable environment for firms.
“If these positive trends strengthen then we may see growth continue for Northern Ireland’s business community for the rest of 2026.”
